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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">socofpower</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Социология власти</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Sociology of Power</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">2074-0492</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2413-144X</issn><publisher><publisher-name>The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.22394/2074-0492-2003-3-57-94</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">socofpower-67</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>СТАТЬИ</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>ARTICLES</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Субъективное благополучие и революционная дестабилизация. Опыт количественного анализа</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Subjective Wellbeing and Revolutionary Destabilization. A Quantitative Analysis</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5947-6570</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Мусиева</surname><given-names>Д. М.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Musieva</surname><given-names>J. M.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Мусиева Джамиля Маллаевна — стажер-исследователь, Центр изучения рисков и стабильности, НИУ «Высшая школа экономики»; научный сотрудник ФГП МГУ имени М. В. Ломоносова.</p><p>Москва</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Jameelah Musieva — Trainee Researcher, Centre for Stability and Risk Analysis, HSE University; Research Fellow, Lomonosov Moscow State University.</p><p>Moscow</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">musdjam@mail.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3800-1108</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Устюжанин</surname><given-names>В. В.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Ustyuzhanin</surname><given-names>V. V.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Устюжанин Вадим Витальевич — стажер-исследователь, Центр изучения стабильности и рисков.</p><p>Москва</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Vadim Ustyuzhanin — Trainee Researcher, Centre for Stability and Risk Analysis, HSE University.</p><p>Moscow</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">vvustiuzhanin@hse.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0278-2619</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Гринин</surname><given-names>Л. Е.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Grinin</surname><given-names>L. E.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Гринин Леонид Ефимович — доктор философских наук, главный научный сотрудник, Центр изучения стабильности и рисков, НИУ «Высшая школа экономики»; ведущий научный сотрудник, Институт востоковедения РАН.</p><p>Москва</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Leonid Grinin — Doctor of Philosophy, Chief Researcher, Centre for Stability and Risk Analysis, HSE University; Leading Researcher, Institute of Oriental Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences.</p><p>Moscow</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">leonid.grinin@gmail.com</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3014-2037</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Коротаев</surname><given-names>А. В.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Korotaev</surname><given-names>A. V.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Коротаев Андрей Витальевич — доктор исторических наук, профессор, заведующий, Центр изучения стабильности и рисков, НИУ «Высшая школа экономики»; ведущий научный сотрудник, Институт востоковедения РАН; профессор ФГП МГУ имени М. В. Ломоносова.</p><p>Москва</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Korotaev Andrey — Doctor of Historical Sciences, Professor, Head of the Centre for Stability and Risk Analysis, HSE University; Leading Researcher, Institute of Oriental Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences; Professor, Faculty of Global Studies, Lomonsov Moscow State University.</p><p>Moscow</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">akorotayev@gmail.com</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru">НИУ «Высшая школа экономики»<country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en">HSE University<country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2023</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>30</day><month>01</month><year>2025</year></pub-date><volume>35</volume><issue>3</issue><fpage>57</fpage><lpage>94</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Мусиева Д.М., Устюжанин В.В., Гринин Л.Е., Коротаев А.В., 2025</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2025</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Мусиева Д.М., Устюжанин В.В., Гринин Л.Е., Коротаев А.В.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Musieva J.M., Ustyuzhanin V.V., Grinin L.E., Korotaev A.V.</copyright-holder><license license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://socofpower.ranepa.ru/jour/article/view/67">https://socofpower.ranepa.ru/jour/article/view/67</self-uri><abstract><p>Субъективное благополучие населения, или уровень счастья, является популярной темой для научных исследований и общественно-политических обсуждений как в рамках отдельных стран, так и на глобальном уровне. В этой связи интерес также приобретает направление исследований, в которых уровень счастья рассматривается как предиктор социально-политической стабильности на данный момент. Анализ литературы выявил, что, несмотря на обилие работ по теме субъективного благополучия, его взаимосвязи с доходами, а также с политической активностью населения, работ, посвященных анализу влияния данного показателя на социально-политическую нестабильность, достаточно мало. В данной статье предпринимается попытка провести кросс-страновый анализ влияния отклонения субъективного благополучия ниже того значения, которое можно было бы ожидать при соответствующем уровне экономического развития. Количественный анализ, проведенный в ходе статьи, позволил выявить наличие статистически значимого влияния данного отклонения на революционную активность как вооруженного, так и невооруженного характера. Примечательно, что выявленные закономерности касаются не всех групп стран, а только среднеразвитых, причем для каждой подгруппы также выявлены собственные закономерности. Так, средние показатели субъективной удовлетворенности жизнью более низкие, чем этого можно было бы ожидать при соответствующем уровне экономического развития, являются существенными предикторами рисков вооруженных революционных выступлений в государствах нижнего эшелона среднеразвитых стран (lower middle-income countries). Вместе с тем в государствах верхнего эшелона среднеразвитых стран (upper middle-income countries) они уже являются предикторами невооруженных революционных выступлений.</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>The subjective well-being of the population — or the ‘level of happiness’ — is a popular topic for scientific research and socio-political discussions both domestically and internationally. In this regard, a direction of research is gaining traction; its proponents consider the level of happiness to be a predictor of the current socio-political stability. An analysis of the literature revealed that, despite the abundance of works on the topic of subjective wellbeing, its relationship with income — as well as with the political activity of the population — there are only a few articles devoted to the analysis of the impact of this indicator on socio-political instability. This article attempts to carry out a cross-country analysis of the impact of deviations in subjective well-being below the value that would be expected at the given level of economic development. The proposed quantitative analysis has made it possible to reveal the presence of a statistically significant influence of this deviation on the revolutionary activity of both an armed and unarmed nature. It is noteworthy that the identified patterns do not apply to all groups of countries — only to middle-income economies — and that each subgroup also has its own patterns. Thus, the mean values of subjective life satisfaction, which are lower than what could be expected with the given level of economic development, are significant predictors of the risks of armed revolutionary insurgencies in lower middle-income countries. At the same time, in upper middle-income countries, they are already predictors of unarmed revolutionary uprisings.</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>субъективное благополучие</kwd><kwd>вооруженные революции</kwd><kwd>невооруженные революционные выступления</kwd><kwd>ВВП на душу населения</kwd><kwd>относительная депривация</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>subjective well-being</kwd><kwd>armed revolutions</kwd><kwd>unarmed revolutionary actions</kwd><kwd>per capita GDP</kwd><kwd>relative deprivation</kwd></kwd-group><funding-group xml:lang="ru"><funding-statement>Исследование выполнено в рамках Программы фундаментальных исследований НИУ ВШЭ в 2023 г. при поддержке Российского научного фонда (проект № 23-18-00535)</funding-statement></funding-group><funding-group xml:lang="en"><funding-statement>This article is an output of a research project implemented as part of the Basic Research Program at the HSE University in 2023 with support by the Russian Science Foundation (Project Number 23-18-00535)</funding-statement></funding-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Аргайл М. 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