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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">socofpower</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Социология власти</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Sociology of Power</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">2074-0492</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2413-144X</issn><publisher><publisher-name>The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id custom-type="edn" pub-id-type="custom">KSSWHK</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">socofpower-366</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>СТАТЬИ</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>ARTICLES</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Выпивать и наказывать: социально-экономические детерминанты насильственной преступности в регионах России</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Drinking and Punishing: Socioeconomic Determinants of Violent Crime in Russia’s Regions</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0009-0008-4852-0757</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Щетинина</surname><given-names>А. И.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Shchetinina</surname><given-names>A. I.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Ангелина Игоревна. Щетинина, стажер-исследователь</p><p>Институт образования; Лаборатория управленияшколой </p><p>Москва</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Angelina. I. Shchetinina, Trainee Researcher</p><p>Institute of Education; Laboratory for School Leadership</p><p>Moscow</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">aischetinina@hse.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0091-5388</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Казун</surname><given-names>А. П.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Kazun</surname><given-names>A. P.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Антон Павлович Казун, кандидат социологических наук, директор Института, доцент</p><p>Институт анализа предприятий и рынков; факультет экономических наук</p><p>Москва</p><p>Научные интересы: социология права, институциональная экономика</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Anton P. Kazun, PhD in Sociology, Director of the Institute, Associate Professor</p><p>Institute for Industrial and Market Studies; Faculty of Economic Sciences</p><p>Moscow</p><p>Research interests: sociology of law, institutional economics</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">akazun@hse.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru">Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики»<country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en">National Research University Higher School of Economics<country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2025</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>20</day><month>12</month><year>2025</year></pub-date><volume>37</volume><issue>4</issue><fpage>77</fpage><lpage>100</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Щетинина А.И., Казун А.П., 2025</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2025</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Щетинина А.И., Казун А.П.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Shchetinina A.I., Kazun A.P.</copyright-holder><license license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://socofpower.ranepa.ru/jour/article/view/366">https://socofpower.ranepa.ru/jour/article/view/366</self-uri><abstract><p>   Несмотря на тенденцию к снижению, уровень насильственных преступлений (убийств, умышленного причинения тяжкого вреда здоровью и пр.) в России остается сравнительно высоким. В статье ставится вопрос о том, какие социально-экономические факторы, показавшие свою значимость в международных исследованиях, влияют на уровень насильственной преступности в регионах России. Мы акцентируем внимание на трех основных детерминантах: экономическом развитии региона, проблеме алкоголизма и сдерживающем эффекте раскрываемости преступлений. Исследование базируется на данных официальной статистики Генеральной прокуратуры РФ за 2011–2021 годы. Для анализа использовались динамические панельные модели (System GMM), позволяющие учитывать эндогенность и инерционность показателей криминальной статистики. Результаты указывают на статистически значимую отрицательную корреляцию между уровнем ВРП и насильственной преступностью, что подтверждает гипотезу о снижении стимулов к насилию с ростом благосостояния. В то же время уровень безработицы не показал значимого эффекта в объяснении анализируемых видов преступлений. Мы показываем, что существенную роль играет потребление алкоголя: рост числа выявленных больных алкоголизмом связан с увеличением числа насильственных преступлений, особенно убийств по неосторожности. Кроме того, повышение раскрываемости по конкретному типу преступления снижает его распространенность в последующие периоды, что согласуется с теорией преступления как рационального выбора Г. Беккера. Основываясь на полученных выводах, можно предположить, что сокращение преступности в России связано с качеством работы правоохранительных органов, политикой в сфере потребления алкоголя, а также перспективами развития экономики в целом.</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>   Despite a downward trend, the level of violent crime in Russia — including homicides and intentional infliction of serious bodily harm — remains comparatively high. This article examines the socio-economic factors —previously identified as significant in international studies — that influence violent crime rates across Russian regions. The analysis focuses on three primary determinants: regional economic development, alcohol abuse, and the deterrent effect of crime detection. The study relies on official statistics from the General Prosecutor’s Office of the Russian Federation for the period from 2011 to 2021. To address issues of endogeneity and the persistence of criminal behavior over time, we employ dynamic panel models (System GMM). The results reveal a statistically significant negative correlation between gross regional product (GRP) per capita and violent crime, supporting the hypothesis that increased economic well-being reduces incentives for violent behavior. In contrast, regional unemployment levels show no significant explanatory power for the types of crimes under investigation. We find that alcohol consumption plays a substantial role: a higher incidence of newly diagnosed alcohol dependence is associated with increased levels of severe violence, particularly in cases of involuntary manslaughter. Additionally, higher detection rates for specific categories of violent crime are linked to lower future crime incidence, in line with Gary Becker’s rational choice theory of crime. Based on these findings, we argue that the reduction of violent crime in Russia is shaped by the effectiveness of law enforcement, public policy on alcohol consumption, and broader prospects for regional economic development.</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>ВРП</kwd><kwd>детерминанты преступности</kwd><kwd>динамические панельные модели</kwd><kwd>потребление алкоголя</kwd><kwd>регионы России</kwd><kwd>сдерживание преступности</kwd><kwd>убийства</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>GRP</kwd><kwd>determinants of crime</kwd><kwd>dynamic panel models</kwd><kwd>alcohol consumption</kwd><kwd>regions of Russia</kwd><kwd>crime deterrence</kwd><kwd>homicides</kwd></kwd-group><funding-group xml:lang="ru"><funding-statement>Исследование выполнено за счет гранта Российского научного фонда № 23-78-10073 «Разработка и апробация методики автоматизированного анализа текстов приговоров российских судов для социально-правовых исследований (на примере насильственных преступлений)» (см. подробнее: https://rscf.ru/project/23-78-10073/)</funding-statement></funding-group><funding-group xml:lang="en"><funding-statement>The article was written on the basis of grant No. 23-78-10073 from the Russian Science Foundation “Development and testing of a methodology for automated analysis of the texts of verdicts of Russian courts for socio-legal research (using violent crimes as an example)” (see more details: https://rscf.ru/project/23-78-10073/)</funding-statement></funding-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Андриенко Ю. 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