socofpowerСоциология властиSociology of Power2074-04922413-144XThe Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public AdministrationSHGWYSsocofpower-352Research ArticleСТАТЬИ. ИССЛЕДОВАНИЯARTICLES. INVESTIGATIONSВлияние раскола элит на успех невооруженных революционных выступлений начала XXI векаImpact of the Split of Elites on the Success of Unarmed Revolutionary Episodes of the Early 21st Centuryhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-3451-3790ИжогинА. А.IzhoginA. A.

Ижогин Александр Александрович — стажер-исследователь, Центр изучения стабильности и рисков

Москва

Alexander A. Izhogin — Junior Research Fellow, Center for Stability and Risk Analysis

Moscow

aaizhogin@edu.hse.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-3014-2037КоротаевА. В.KorotayevA. V.

Коротаев Андрей Витальевич — д.и.н., директор, Центр изучения стабильности и рисков, Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики»; г.н.с., Институт Африки РАН 

Москва

Andrey V. Korotayev — Doctor of Historical Sciences, Director, Center for Stability and Risk Analysis, HSE University; Chief Researcher, Institute for African Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences 

Moscow

Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики»РоссияHSE UniversityRussian FederationНациональный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики»; Институт Африки РАНРоссияHSE University; Institute for African Studies, Russian Academy of SciencesRussian Federation202522102025373177213Copyright © Ижогин А.А., Коротаев А.В., 20252025Ижогин А.А., Коротаев А.В.Izhogin A.A., Korotayev A.V.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://socofpower.ranepa.ru/jour/article/view/352

Существующие данные по расколу элит дают основания предполагать его значимость для революционного успеха, а также значимость для успеха революционного выступления перехода на сторону революционной оппозиции прежде всего силовых элит. Авторы, с опорой на современные политологические концепции и сравнительно-качественный анализ (QCA), протестировали соответствующие гипотезы. Использовались следующие переменные: разнообразие протестующих по социально-демографическим признакам; разнообразие протестующих по политическим признакам; разнообразие протестующих по этнорелигиозным признакам; поддержка режима извне; поддержка протестующих извне; раскол гражданских элит; раскол силовых элит; число участников революционного эпизода на пике события. В качестве кейсов были выбраны революционные эпизоды, произошедшие в период с 2000 по 2013 год, по которым имеется достаточно информации для проведения анализа. Результаты QCA показали, что одновременный раскол обоих видов элит является значимым предиктором успеха большинства невооруженных революционных эпизодов, попавших в выборку, однако речь идет о достаточном, но не необходимом условии революционного успеха. При этом если имеется раскол лишь одного из видов элит, то невооруженное революционное выступление может победить, только если присутствует разнообразие протестующих по политическим признакам (что является индикатором наличия широкой революционной коалиции). В целом широкая революционная коалиция показывает себя в качестве очень мощного фактора успеха невооруженного революционного выступления, близкого по своей силе к фактору раскола элит. Другим достаточно важным предиктором революционного успеха оказалось сочетание внешней поддержки участников невооруженного революционного выступления с отсутствием внешней поддержки режима.

Existing data on elite splits suggest their significance for revolutionary success, as well as the significance of the defection of primarily security elites to the side of the revolutionary opposition for the success of a revolutionary uprising. The authors, relying on modern political science concepts and qualitative comparative analysis (QCA), tested the corresponding hypotheses. The following variables were used: diversity of protesters by socio-demographic characteristics; diversity of protesters by political characteristics; diversity of protesters by ethnoreligious characteristics; external support for the regime; external support for protesters; splits in civilian elites; splits in security elites; the number of participants in the revolutionary episode at the peak of the event. The cases selected were revolutionary episodes that occurred between 2000 and 2013 for which there is sufficient information for analysis. The QCA results show that simultaneous splits in both types of elites is a significant predictor of success for the majority of unarmed revolutionary episodes included in the sample; however, this is a sufficient but not a necessary condition for revolutionary success. Moreover, if only one type of elite is split, then an unarmed revolutionary uprising can only succeed if there is a diversity of protesters along political lines (which is an indicator of the presence of a broad revolutionary coalition). Overall, a broad revolutionary coalition has proven to be a very powerful factor in the success of an unarmed revolutionary uprising, similar in strength to the factor of elite splits. Another significant predictor of revolutionary success turns out to be the combination of external support for the participants in the unarmed revolutionary uprising and the absence of external support for the regime.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.