socofpowerСоциология властиSociology of Power2074-04922413-144XThe Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration10.22394/2074-0492-2023-1-118-159socofpower-122Research ArticleСТАТЬИARTICLESКоличественный анализ экономических факторов революционной дестабилизации: результаты и перспективыA Quantitative Analysis of Economic Factors of Revolutionary Destabilization: Results and Prospectshttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-3014-2037КоротаевА. В.KorotaevA. V.

Коротаев Андрей Витальевич — профессор, доктор исторических наук, директор Центра изучения стабильности и рисков НИУ ВШЭ; главный научный сотрудник, Институт Африки РАН.

Москва

Andrey V. Korotaev — Professor, Doctor of Historical Sciences, Director of the Centre for Stability and Risk Analysis, HSE University; Chief Researcher, Institute for African Studies RAS.

Moscow

akorotayev@gmail.comhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-4492-7903ЖдановА. И.ZhdanovA. I.

Жданов Андрей Игоревич — стажер-исследователь Центра изучения стабильности и рисков НИУ ВШЭ; аспирант РЭУ им Г. В. Плеханова.

Москва

Andrew I. Zhdanov — Intern Researcher at the Centre for Stability and Risk Analysis, HSE University; Postgraduate Student of the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics.

Moscow

andreizhdanov998@gmail.comНИУ ВШЭ; Институт Африки РАНРоссияHSE University; Institute for African Studies RASRussian FederationНИУ ВШЭ; РЭУ им Г.В. ПлехановаРоссияHSE University; Plekhanov Russian University of EconomicsRussian Federation202307022023351118159Copyright © Коротаев А.В., Жданов А.И., 20232023Коротаев А.В., Жданов А.И.Korotaev A.V., Zhdanov A.I.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://socofpower.ranepa.ru/jour/article/view/122

Имеются определенные основания для утверждений о формировании в XXI веке пятого поколения теорий революции. Главными отличительными чертами нового поколения теорий революции, по всей видимости, является опора на глобальные базы данных революционных событий, широкое использование современных методов количественного анализа, а также принципиальное представление о том, что для вооруженных и невооруженных революционных событий характерны принципиально разные факторы, структура и последствия. При этом революции/максималистские кампании понимаются как «серии наблюдаемых, непрерывных, целенаправленных массовых тактик, преследующих фундаментальные изменения политического порядка: смену режима или национальное самоопределение» (Э. Ченовет). Эта статья открывает серию обзоров основных конкретных результатов, полученных в рамках исследований данного поколения, которая открывается анализом выявленных в рамках данного подхода экономических факторов революционной дестабилизации. Проведенные к настоящему времени количественные кросс-национальные исследования экономических факторов революционной дестабилизации (которые мы считаем возможным относить к пятому поколению исследований революций) показывают, что одни и те же экономические факторы могут оказывать очень разное влияние на вероятность начала вооруженных восстаний, с одной стороны, и невооруженных революционных выступлений — с другой. Эти исследования демонстрируют, что вероятность невооруженных революционных выступлений более высока в экономически среднеразвитых странах, не имеющих нефтяных доходов, на фоне быстрого роста цен на продовольствие (при этом провоцировать такие выступления может как экономический спад, так и экономический подъем). С другой стороны, вооруженные восстания наиболее вероятны в наиболее бедных странах с сырьевой экономикой на фоне экономического спада и падения инвестиций в основной капитал.

There are certain grounds for asserting that the fifth generation of revolution theories is being formed in the 21st century. The main distinguishing features of the new generation of theories of revolution seem to be the reliance on global databases of revolutionary events, the widespread use of modern methods of quantitative analysis, and the fundamental idea that armed and unarmed revolutionary events are characterized by fundamentally different factors, structure and consequences. At the same time, revolutions / maximalist campaigns are understood as “series of observable, continuous, targeted mass tactics pursuing fundamental changes in the political order: regime change or national self-determination” (E. Chenoweth). This article opens a series of reviews of the main concrete results obtained within the research of this generation, which opens with an analysis of the economic factors of revolutionary destabilization identified within the framework of this approach. Quantitative cross-national studies of the economic factors of revolutionary destabilization carried out to date (which we refer to as the fifth generation of studies of revolutions) show that the same economic factors can have very different effects on the likelihood of the outbreak of armed uprisings, on the one hand, and unarmed revolutionary actions, on the other. These studies show that the likelihood of unarmed revolutionary uprisings is higher in middle income countries without oil revenues, against the backdrop of rapidly rising food prices (whereas both recession and economic recovery can provoke such uprisings). On the other hand, armed uprisings are most likely in the poorest raw-material-based economies against the backdrop of an economic downturn and falling investment in fixed assets.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.